Will COP30 Deliver Lasting Change for the Amazon?
By Lottie Hanwell
Demonstration at COP29 on November 16 in Baku, Azerbaijan. | Photo by Peter Dejong/AP
A decade after the Paris Agreement, global climate diplomacy sits at a crossroads. The U.S. has exited the accord, dealing a major blow to global efforts to combat climate change. Fossil fuel lobbyists have dominated recent negotiations in Baku and Dubai, outnumbering indigenous groups and vulnerable nations. And despite commitments to ‘transition away from fossil fuels,’ oil and gas expansion continues. Much is at stake for Brazil as it prepares to host COP30 in November 2025.
Yet the conference brings fresh hope for some. For the first time, COP will take place in the Amazon basin, hosted by the city of Belém. By drawing global media attention to the Amazon region, there’s hope that COP30 will increase the visibility of the forest, its people, and the challenges they face. Often termed the ‘lungs’ of the world, the Amazon rainforest is one of the world’s most important biomes. It plays a critical role in absorbing carbon dioxide and limiting the worst impacts of climate change. But it is also a key climate battleground, where indigenous groups and environmentalists are engaged in a fierce struggle against industrial expansion, illegal mining, deforestation and indigenous land theft.
“Everyone knows that the Amazon region is really important, but to us it is sacred,” says Lucimar Prata, a human rights activist and researcher from Manuas, in Brazil’s Amazon region. “People talk about us, they research about us, but they never visit. Having the COP here is a way for us to show the world all that the Amazon has, what we are capable of, and the help that we need.”
Beyond highlighting the Amazon’s importance, COP30 will carry forward key discussions from previous conferences. A central focus will be on how to implement the pledge to ‘transition away from fossil fuels.’ Ahead of the conference, nations must submit updated national plans (NDCs) to cut emissions, and Brazil will play a key role in pushing countries to meet their commitments under the Paris Agreement. As one of the first nations to release its updated NDC, Brazil aims to set an example. However, despite its ambitious emissions targets, the country remains silent about its own oil and gas expansion—including plans for oil exploration in the Amazon—raising doubts about the conference’s ability to drive real progress on phasing out fossil fuels.
“Now that the US has pulled out of the Paris Agreement, this conference represents a potent opportunity for Brazil to position itself as a global climate leader,” says Agnes Cazemiro, a programme coordinator who has worked with numerous Amazon-based charities. In order to do so, she highlights the need for the government to take a more committed stance to change closer to home. “The Lula administration has been vocal in its support of environmental issues, but its actions often don’t align with its words.” As an example of this, Cazemiro highlights the continued concessions made towards Big Agriculture by the Brazilian government. Brazil brought the largest number of agricultural lobbyists to COP29 of any delegation, granting agricultural giants like meat company JBS privileged access to diplomatic negotiations. “The work of corporations like JBS is carbon-intensive and directly linked to indigenous land invasions and deforestation, “ says Cazemiro. “If the government is really serious about its commitments to the Amazon region, it needs to stop platforming these interests and really incorporate indigenous people into the narrative.”
The inclusion of indigenous leadership and organisations has long been a source of frustration at UN climate conferences. Confined to the status of ‘observers,’ indigenous people are unable to directly influence the negotiations, which happen in closed discussions attended exclusively by member states. However, COP30 may represent a step forwards for indigenous participation. Brazil established its first ever ministry for Indigenous people in 2023, and there’s hope that its leader, Sônia Guajajara, may be one of the first indigenous delegates to get a seat at the negotiating table. “While nothing is certain yet, organisations across Brazil, and even the Brazilian state, are really pushing to include more indigenous representatives at COP30 — not only to appear in pictures, but to take part in the negotiations,” says Prata.
Historically neglected by the Brazilian state, the host city of Belém is now undergoing rapid development to accommodate the 60,000 people expected to attend the conference in November. “Belém is very different from Dubai and other global, developed cities that have hosted COP in the past,” says Prata. “There are doubts about how well the city’s infrastructure is set up for the conference.” To prepare, the Brazilian government has announced major investments, including the construction of three hotels and the development of two parks. However, many question whether these projects will truly benefit residents or address the city’s deeper challenges. Sumauma reports that 83% of Belém’s population lacks access to basic sanitation, and the city has some of the lowest sewage treatment rates in the country. Without an integrated vision for how the development surrounding COP will bring lasting change to other policy areas, like housing, sanitation and urban mobility, Belém’s residents may see little long-term benefit.
As Belém prepares for the conference, many question whether these investments will bring lasting benefits to Amazonian communities or merely serve as a temporary facelift for a global audience. “It’s nice to bring eyes on the Amazon, but when COP is gone, will indigenous rights still be violated? Will they still try to extract oil from the river basin?” says Manuella de Comeria, a Chevening scholar in Urban Analytics. The same uncertainty surrounds COP itself: will it spark real action, or once again leave urgent issues—like the transition from fossil fuels— unresolved?
About the Writer
Lottie Hanwell
Lottie Hanwell is a UK-based researcher and writer. She recently completed a Masters in Climate Justice in Glasgow, Scotland, where she researched the social equity impacts of urban greening.
